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How Reciprocal Tariffs Impact Global Trade

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We’re exploring the 2025 Fair and Reciprocal Plan, its goals, potential risks, and how it may impact importers, prices, and global supply chains. See for yourself how reciprocal tariffs impact trade.
March 26, 2025
Last Modified: April 9, 2025
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Tariffs and duty payments go hand in glove with international business, but are some better or worse than others? U.S. reciprocal tariffs are now in place, so let’s break down just how they being applied and what impacts importers can expect. 

Key Takeaways:

  • Reciprocal tariffs proposed by President Trump are aimed at countering trade imbalances by aligning U.S. import duties with those imposed by foreign nations.
  • The Fair and Reciprocal Plan focuses on prioritizing tariff increases rather than reductions to encourage renegotiation of trade agreements.
  • Recently announced reciprocal tariffs targeted India, Vietnam, South Korea, and the European Union, among various others.
  • While reciprocal tariffs may lead to fairer trade terms, they carry immediate risks short term, including retaliatory tariffs, increased consumer costs, and legal challenges under WTO rules.

Let’s review the details surrounding current reciprocal tariff proposals and what they may mean for the U.S. and world economies. 

April 2025 Update: Reciprocal Tariffs Officially Announced

Here at USA Customs Clearance, we do our best to stay updated on the most recent happenings in the international trade environment. That said, many of the changes taking place occur hour-by-hour. For the most recent information, schedule a consulting session with one of our Licensed Customs Brokers or call our team at (855) 912-0406.

On April 2, 2025 an executive order was announced by the president providing official deadlines for the start of reciprocal tariffs and a list of affected countries

The tariffs are due to be rolled out in two phases.

  • Starting April 5 —  nearly all countries that the U.S. trades with (just over 180 nations) will be subject to a 10% additional ad valorem flat tariff in addition to current general duties. 
  • Starting April 9 —  adjusted reciprocal tariffs will be applied to a list of nations specified in Annex I of the executive order. These will replace the flat 10% tariff. 

Among the list of nations being impacted, those likely to impact U.S. importers the most are provided in the following table.

Reciprocal Tariff Rate Examples

CountryCurrent Reciprocal Tariff Rate
China34%
European Union20%
India27%
Indonesia32%
Japan24%
South Korea24%
Vietnam46%

Source: White House Executive Order Annex I

Countries not included in Annex I will continue to be subject to the 10% tariff that starts April 5, although certain exemptions will be made for a narrow list of products. 

These exemptions are for commodities such as steel and aluminum, which are already subject to tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. Other commodities that may be exempt for the time being include:

  • Pharmaceuticals
  • Copper
  • Semiconductors
  • Lumber articles
  • Energy/critical minerals

While the reciprocal tariffs won’t apply, it doesn’t mean these commodities are duty free. They are still under general tariffs and may be impacted by expanded Section 232 actions at a future date. Product descriptions and codes are provided as part of Annex II of the same executive order.

The nations of Canada and Mexico will not be subject to reciprocal taxes. However, imports are still subject to a 25% tariff if they aren’t compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which allows for duty-free or preferential duty treatment of qualifying products. 

China responded to the U.S.’s reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025. All U.S. goods entering China will receive an 84% percent tariff starting on April 10th, 2025.  In 2024, the U.S. exported $143.5 million of goods to China. 

The most commonly exported items to China include:

  • Oil, gas, and coil
  • Soybeans
  • Aircraft and aerospace products
  • Vehicles

Hours after China announced it would be implementing an 84% tariff, the U.S. responded by raising the tariff on Chinese imports to 125%. The U.S. also decided that it will be pausing its Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs on all countries for 90 days. Instead, all nations will now receive a flat 10% tariff, except for China. 

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Reciprocal Tariffs Under the Trump Administration

President Trump’s second term has been marked by a series of tariffs, among them the intent to use reciprocal tariffs to combat trade imbalances. 

Historically, reciprocal tariffs have been used by the U.S. to that effect. Franklin Roosevelt used them in the 1930s to negotiate bilateral trade agreements in which both nations lowered tariffs. 

The current proposal, the Fair and Reciprocal Plan outlined in a presidential memorandum in February 2025, is focused on raising domestic tariffs to match those imposed by other nations on U.S. exports of the same product

An attempt at such measures was initially put forth through the U.S. Reciprocal Trade Act in 2019, though it ultimately failed to pass. 

Trump’s current memorandum has also not resulted in immediate action or the application of duties. Instead, it has announced an investigation into foreign trade policies and barriers imposed by other nations against U.S. exports. 

Investigations will be conducted through the U.S. Office of the Trade Representative (USTR) and the Secretary of Commerce (Commerce). Other agencies would get involved as needed, depending on the industry affected. 

No investigation is to officially start until the agencies tasked with generating reports under the America First Trade Policy Memorandum are completed. Such reports were to be completed by April 1, 2025. 

Related: Trump’s America First Trade Policy: What it Means for U.S. Importers in 2025 and Beyond

Goals Behind the Fair and Reciprocal Plan

While the current call to increase tariffs is the opposite of how reciprocal tariffs in the 1930s worked, the goal is the same: to encourage renegotiation of trade terms and get foreign governments to lower tariffs on U.S. exports

Considering the ever-increasing trade deficit between U.S. imports and exports, the idea is not without support. However, achieving this goal through the imposition of increased tariffs also presents several challenges. Among the top are:

  • Foreign nations retaliating with further tariffs or trade barriers
  • A spike in costs for consumers as importers raise prices to adjust for higher tariffs
  • Fewer exports, should foreign nations impose retaliatory tariffs
  • Interference from the World Trade Organization (WTO) which has rules against discriminatory tariffs

WTO rules against discriminatory tariffs are generally visible in their most-favored-nation (MFN) policies. However, the organization does not outright prohibit the application of higher or lower duties, especially when there is proof of unfair trading practices. 

In short, the initial outlook from reciprocal tariffs doesn’t look great and there is risk involved. In the long term, there are advantages to such tariffs provided the nations involved (and the WTO) can come to new, mutually beneficial agreements through negotiations. 

Related: What Are Reciprocal Tariffs? Definition and Purpose 

Nations That May Be Targeted By Reciprocal Tariffs

No official investigations have been started by the USTR or Commerce, so it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly which countries will face reciprocal tariffs. However, we can narrow down the possibilities based on the examples listed in the memorandum fact sheet put out by the White House

In general terms, any nation, whether through the imposition of tariffs or the use of other trade barriers, that reduces its market access to U.S. products may be targeted by reciprocal actions

Of course, for the action to be considered reciprocal, there must also be evidence that the same product from that nation is benefiting from access to the U.S. market and lower incoming tariffs.  

Nations and organizations potentially facing targeted tariffs may include:

  • Brazil — due to its application of an 18% duty on ethanol while the U.S. imposes a 2.5% duty, resulting in a $148 million deficit in ethanol trades for the U.S.  
  • European Union — due to its ban on shellfish from 48 states while the U.S. freely imports from the entire EU, resulting in a $236 million deficit in shellfish trades for the U.S.
  • India — due to its unequal application of MFN policy by applying a 39% tariff on agricultural goods while the U.S. only charges 5%
  • Vietnam — due to serving as a ‘connector country’ and partnering with China to open production facilities operated by their businesses, thus allowing China to bypass Section 301 tariffs

There is surely more to each of these instances, such as possible production differences, supply and demand issues, and more. Global trade is a complex balance, and proper investigations should reveal more about these and other situations. 

Related: How to Source Products From Overseas

Who is Impacted by Reciprocal Tariffs in the US?

The timeline of reciprocal tariffs and their potential effects is very fluid. The investigations of unfair or unbalanced trade policies tasked to the USTR and Commerce haven’t officially started yet. Depending on the nature of those investigations, application of reciprocal tariffs can take several months while reports are reviewed and official responses are determined. 

Focusing on the current plan as outlined by the Trump Administration, let’s examine three groups within the United States facing the most immediate consequences. 

Keep in mind that even within these groups there will be differences since tariffs of any kind, reciprocal or standard, do not affect every industry in the same way.

Importers

In recent years, importers have been able to use the U.S.’s relatively low import tariffs to their advantage. This had led to something of a reliance on global supply chains for sourcing goods for resale (especially common retail merchandise) at competitive prices. 

Reciprocal tariffs are likely to impact such importers in the following ways:

  • Higher costs on overseas products
  • Increased overall expenses for industries relying on imported raw materials
  • Loss of competitive price offerings when increased costs are passed onto the customer

The combination of these factors can overwhelm a business that lacks a diversified supply chain. Recall that reciprocal tariffs do tend to be nation-specific. Having multiple sources, perhaps even some domestic ones, can allow companies to overcome such challenges. 

Exporters

Since reciprocal tariffs can only be applied on incoming products, exporters in some industries might be able to proceed with few changes. They are already working with and profiting under the current duty rates applied by other nations. 

That doesn’t mean reciprocal tariffs have no impact, just more subtle ones. Unless the nation being targeted by reciprocal tariffs decides to impose retaliatory measures of their own, then the impact is less subtle.

  • Increased domestic demand may undercut foreign sales 
  • Business losses due to closure or rapid decrease in purchasing by other nations
  • Disruption in the import to export manufacturing sector

Like importers, exporters can mitigate the effects through a diverse customer base. Smaller businesses may find this more difficult, especially if they are offering very niched products. 

On the flip side, exporters can become even more successful if the destination were to lower their tariffs, thus allowing for increased business and possibly market expansion. 

Consumers

The consumer, or end user, of the products being impacted by higher tariffs is going to feel the greatest impact. Unlike businesses, there is no one else they can pass on the increased costs to. They just need to absorb it. 

Again, it depends on the industry, but based on current outlook, here is how consumers are most likely to feel the impact of reciprocal tariffs:

  • Increased prices for products in markets for common retail goods, household appliances, and automotive. 
  • Decreased product variety as businesses seek to cut costs and avoid trade restrictions.
  • If disputes impact policies for an extended period, there could be additional inflationary effects.

Long-term benefits for consumers will depend on how tariffs negotiations work out. If beneficial terms are met sooner, some businesses may be able to hold off on drastic price hikes. 

Otherwise, consumers may need to wait until domestic output is capable of matching foreign counterparts and able to offer competitive pricing. 

Are Reciprocal Tariffs Bad? Global Trade Impacts

Whether reciprocal tariffs are bad or not really depends on how they are applied and to what purpose. There are valid arguments for and against most types of tariffs. Additionally, there’s no getting around the fact that the money made from tariffs is how governments fund a variety of programs. 

Reciprocal tariffs are also a bargaining tool at their core. The goal when applying them is to promote fair and reasonable trade. The difference is whether the country is able to incentivize or threaten. Since the U.S. already has relatively low import tariffs in comparison with other nations, raising them would seem to be the only way to push discussion. 

To avoid the general argument that comes with such a discussion, let’s simply examine potential impacts across certain sectors

Effects on Supply Chains

Most businesses got a reminder of just how fragile the global supply chain is when the Coronavirus pandemic was in full swing. While the U.S. is just one country among hundreds, it’s the number one importer and number two exporter globally. A disruption in its trade practices will have an impact. 

Impacts may include:

  • Having businesses increase their use of domestic industries, while also seeking alternative suppliers in other nations to make up for supply deficits
  • An interruption of just-in-time logistics models relying on fast and efficient trade with current rules and standards
  • Foreign companies investing in the U.S. may pull back out of fear of trade or market uncertainty. 

Trade With Partner Nations

As much as the U.S. relies on the products of other countries, those same places have come to rely on the revenue generated by the demand of the U.S. population. 

Should the U.S. place reciprocal tariffs in place that reduce that revenue, it could have the following consequences. 

  • The imposition of retaliatory tariffs in response, limiting the market in foreign governments by cutting down the profitability of U.S.-produced goods. 
  • It could drive other nations to lower their tariffs and renegotiate trade terms making reciprocal tariffs unnecessary. 
  • A reduction of global commerce in general if nations refuse to negotiate different terms and instead focus on expanding trade barriers. 

Once again, the potential results are a mix of good and bad, depending on the avenues taken by our trade partners.

World Trade Organization Involvement

The WTO is a global organization providing a means for all member counties to come together and sort out differences in trade needs. It exists and has rules regarding international trade because its member nations have mutually agreed to give it such authority. 

With 166 members ranging from the U.S. to the tiny islands of Fiji, it has significant influence over global trade. However, influence and enforcement are not the same. 

Let’s see some examples. 

  • Impacted nations can lodge formal complaints against the U.S. to the governing board of the WTO, but this group cannot force change 
  • Increased legal disputes among nations of the WTO can delay implementation of tariff adjustments across the board, but only as much as each allows themselves to be guided. 

The WTO can’t stop the U.S. or any other countries from implementing tariffs. However, the more countries take matters into their own hands, the weaker the global trade framework becomes. 

That kind of market instability may be more easily weathered by industrious and developed nations. Smaller countries that have come to rely on the protective policies of the WTO that protect fair trade practices may not do so well. 

USA Customs Clearance Helps You Navigate Trade Adjustments

At the moment, there is little to be done about reciprocal tariffs themselves. However, if your industry or supply chain is set to be impacted, it’s important to stay informed of the latest developments.

For those working in import businesses that are more likely to be impacted by these tariffs, the time to diversify your supply chain is now. USA Customs Clearance offers expert advice to importers and businesses based in the U.S. and abroad who are seeking customs entry services. 

Our services include:

Reach out today at (855) 912-0406 to speak with a representative or send a direct inquiry through our online contact form.

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